Depressed about the next Depression (or lack thereof)

There's still headlines every day about the global economy. The news coming in is worse every day. I hear the phrase "recession" every day. And that got me to thinking: if the country has been in a recession since 2007 (yet the government didn't declare until 2008, could we be in a "depression" now (that will ironically be announced next year)? I looked-up "The Great Depression" on Wikipedia and was shocked at the similarities between now and then, particularly in relation to deflation.

"The search for causes is closely connected to the question of how to avoid a future depression, and so the political and policy viewpoints of scholars are mixed into the analysis of historic events eight decades ago. The even larger question is whether it was largely a failure on the part of free markets or largely a failure on the part of governments to curtail widespread bank failures, the resulting panics, and reduction in the money supply."

1. In early 1930, credit was ample and available at low rates, but people were reluctant to add new debt by borrowing.
Sounds familiar, huh? Everywhere you look right now, there's great deals on flatscreen tv's, houses and cars.


2. By May 1930, auto sales had declined to below the levels of 1928.
Despite there being good deals on cars now (although it's debatable if buying 1 car at sticker price is a good deal to get another car for a penny), people are preparing for a downturn in 2009.


3. The decline in the US economy was the factor that pulled down most other countries at first, then internal weaknesses or strengths in each country made conditions worse or better.
Iceland's bankrupt now. Ireland's broke. Canada's doing well, so they're revoking visas for foreign workers.


4. When the market fell, brokers called in these loans, which could not be paid back. Banks began to fail as debtors defaulted on debt and depositors attempted to withdraw their deposits en masse, triggering multiple bank runs.
Americans borrowing too much money and then defaulting into foreclosure? You're kidding?


5. Irving Fisher argued that the predominant factor leading to the Great Depression was overindebtedness and deflation. Fisher tied loose credit to over-indebtedness, which fueled speculation and asset bubbles.

9 factors interacting with one another under conditions of debt and deflation to create the mechanics of boom to bust. The chain of events proceeded as follows:

1. Debt liquidation and distress selling


2. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off


3. A fall in the level of asset prices


4. A still greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies


5. A fall in profits


6. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment.


7. Pessimism and loss of confidence


8. Hoarding of money


9. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation adjusted interest rates

You can do a lot more comparing, but it's pretty scary to think about how serious this all might get (or has gotten already but we're too arrogant to see it).

Tough call.

OK, so I guess they'll both have to be in an issue. Together hopefully!

On a side note, what the hell is going on with Hugh Hefner? Clearly, he's not banging these young blondes all the time. Viagra surely has kept him the game well after he should've retired, but even a drug has limits. He had 3 chicks (Kendra, Holly and Bridget) who obvioulsy cared about him and the Playboy franchise (even if they can't make Hef's taffy pole work). He bounces them for a set of Florida trash twins? Someone call the senile wagon.

No longer Cuban's Cubbies.

Mark Cuban's bid to buy the Cubs from the Tribune Co. is dead in the water. He expalined on his blog, Blog Maverick, to explain what happened. Here's a quick sample I thought was interesting:

My sense of the entire situation was that whoever the new owner of the Cubs would be, it was in the Sox best interest for things to stay business as usual. Published TV ratings and other published measures showed that the Cubs were more popular than the Sox, yet before I even started looking at the Cubs, I knew from my discussions with people in the NBA that the Cubs and Sox were treated as equals in their business dealings. That was great for the Sox, not so good for the Cubs. I'm guessing the people in the Sox organization knew, that if I bought the team, particularly at the price point that was being suggested in the papers, there was no way I would just accept parity in future business dealings. I was going to have to try to negotiate the very best deals possible for the Cubs, even if it was at the expense of the White Sox.

Down with the White Sux!!!

Et tu?

Stumbled on this blog posting for naming what your first beer of 2009 was. The blogger states his was a Bud, which he admits does not bode well for 2009. I wish I could say my first beer de '09 was some hip microbrew (Side note: funny how all of the commenters on his blog are one-uppping each other on their cool first beers...one dude said his first in 2009 was a home brew. Yeah, sure.) Mine was a Heinekein. Not something I drink all the time, but I think it's a decent choice. Hell, if the economy keeps going the way it is, I'll be lucky to afford anything other than Natural Light. Natty Light! Ouch.

No Watchmen watches?

Speaking of the Watchmen movie. I can't imagine THIS website is licensed by Warner Borthers to sell products. This goes against everything the graphic novel (and hopefully the movie) wanrs us about society's evils. Keychains? Beanies? Flasks? Sad. I'm seriously hoping the movie studio wouldn't front a lot of movie for this movie's vision, only to taint it with cheap ass marketing. Hope, hope, hope.

Who watches the Watchmen?

Can't wait for this movie to come out already. Based on one of the best graphic novels (if not the best?) ever. There's been some updates to the movie's website and a new website has hit. Nothing to unlock yet, but wait for details as the movie approaches. I hope I'm not disappointed.

I'm in love.

A new Sony Vaio P Series laptop debuted at the Consumer Electronics Convention in Vegas this week. Made by Sony and will retail for $900. It's the smallest laptop yet! I might have to get a new piece of hardware in 2009: Vista, 3G, WiFi, bluetooth and only 1.4 lbs.

STFU Sarah

I know it's after the election, but Sexy Sarah keeps figuring out new ways to get her name in the papers and is trying soooo desperately to stay in the public spotlight. So, I'll do her a favor and keep talking about her too (even though we're all better off without her). Palin had some choice words during in interview for an anti-Obama documentary recently. (Side note, why were documentaries about Bush or 911 considered anti-American and this one isn't?)

On Caroline Kennedy getting liberal media bias:

I’ve been interested to see how Caroline Kennedy will be handled and if she will be handled with kid gloves or if she will be under such a microscope. It’s going to be interesting to see how that plays out and I think that as we watch that we will perhaps be able to prove that there is a class issue here also that was such a factor in the scrutiny of my candidacy versus, say, the scrutiny of what her candidacy may be.

First off, how hard is it to read quotes from Palin without her stupid accent running through your head? I can't not do it! Secondly, does her sentence make grammatical sense? I can't follow it and I've read it three times. I think she's saying she was scrutinized pre-election because she's of a lower class than Caroline Kennedy. I mean, no one's arguing she's lower class, but maybe the fact that Kennedy isn't a famewhore seeking attention, means she's less scrutinized? Oh, and the fact that she has chosen to do charity work for her entire adult life, which is indicative of her caring for people other than herself.

On others getting ratings at her expense:

I did see that Tina Fey was named entertainer of the year and Katie Couric’s ratings have risen. And I know that a lot of people are capitalizing on, oh I don’t know, perhaps some exploiting that was done via me, my family, my administration. That’s a little bit perplexing, but it also says a great deal about our society.

One of my pet peeves? When people say "I don't know," yet you know they know exactly what they're saying and/or thinking. I hate that. If Palin is so upset with Fey doing her impressions, why did she go on SNL with her? Why did she say she went as Tina Fey for Halloween? Why has she said multiple times she thought it was funny? Now that the election's over, not so funny. Katie Couric's rating went up not because she took advantage of Palin. She just happened to get lucky enough to capture this moment:



Bet Palin regrets telling Terry he's part of the liberal media bias and using her to get popularity and ratings! Dayum!!

Finally, something on tv to watch. No, seriously.

A new tv show is being developed, called "Flash Forward," which sounds cool. Some great talent working on it too, including actors Joseph Fiennes and John Cho. The best part: David Goyer is penning the script! His past efforts have created such genius as Blade (he atacually wrote all 3 movies), Dark City and The Dark Knight.

Imagine if the pierced girl kept in touch?

There's a tv show on WTTW that films in Chicago called "Check, Please!" The show is a half hour where 3 Chicagoland patrons highlight their favorite restaurant, they each eat at each other's suggested locales, and then they compare notes. It's a entertaining show because you get to see wide variety of restaurants from all of Chi-town and it's burbs. On January 16th, a lost episode of the show will be airing, because it was never aired during the show's first season in 2001. The lost episode is being aired mainly because of one of the guest reviewers on that particular episode:

Skiing mishap

Judging by the title of this post, you might be expecting some horrible story about someone (or even myself) breaking a leg or arm while skiing. Or someone running into a tree and dying. Well, rest assured, this posting is about a man who falls through a ski lift and dangles naked while waiting for rescue. You can go HERE to read details about the mishap and to view photos of the incident, courtesy of "The Smoking Gun" website. The photos aren't that NSFW. (Is a photo of a flabby butt flapping in the wind not safe for work? OK, so it is.) But, the pics are most definitely VFFV (Very Funny For Viewing).

There's no frontal nekkidness in the photos, but I swear in one pic you can see bush...at that far of a distance! Dude, buy some scissors for the ladies.

Wonder if it's true his kid was in the seat with him. Worst. Father-and-son story. Ever.

He makes great boardgames AND can hit.

The Cubs have apparently found their left-handed bat for the middle of the order.
Switch-hitter Milton Bradley is expected in Chicago later this week to undergo a physical, and if all goes well, will sign a three-year, $30 million contract with the Cubs. Bradley, 30, led the American League in on-base percentage last year while batting .321 with 22 homers for Texas.

The Cubs have been searching for a way to break up the overload of right-handed hitters in Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Geovany Soto, and on New Year's Eve, dealt another right-handed hitter, Mark DeRosa, to the Indians.

With the addition of two switch-hitters in Bradley and Aaron Miles, acquired last week, plus lefty bats Kosuke Fukudome, Joey Gathright and Mike Fontenot, the Cubs appear to have the potential for a much more balanced lineup in '09.

Er, doesn't Fukudome have to actually connect the bat to the ball to be deemed a lefty?

This will be Bradley's seventh team and fifth in the past five seasons. He can be a force on the field but also has had run-ins with managers and fans in the past.

And this is goood, since the Cubs were looking to add instability and ego to the line-up...

Don't mess with Ozzy.

Even if you have never watched this trashy show (Rock of Love), this is pretty funny, Springer-time! Sharon Osborne beating down a skank:

MTV Shows

Netflix environmentally friendly?

Yep, it is! Slate.com posted an article about whether it's bettter for the environment to rent locally at a store or rent via Netflix. In a nutshell, Netflix doesn't add the extra fuel burnage sending vidoes to a large warehouse before hitting the store shelves. Plus, having videos delivered with the mail eliminates driving to the store (which burns gas again).

Of course, if you can find options to rent/view on digital cable or online, even better for the environment. Be the solution, while enjoying life!

Happy New Year! Hope it starts better than these folks..